Daily Observations:

Oil traded below $45/bbl before major producers meet later today to discuss output constraints in Algiers, while Asian indices fell despite a better-than expected consumer confidence and services PMI data from the US last night. The dollar strengthened for the first time this week while gold fell.


  • US September consumer confidence jumped to the highest since 2007, up from 101.1 in August to 104.1 this month and beating the consensus estimate of 99.0.
  • Markit’s services PMI rose to 51.9 from 51.0, exceeding the consensus projection of 51.2.
  • The Mexican peso, increasingly a barometer of anxiety around the Trump campaign, jumped the most since February against the dollar on the market-perception that Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump in their first debate yesterday.
  • The Fed’s Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said the economy is better off with higher rates and that wages are starting to rise amid stronger pressure in the labor market.
  • A CNN poll showed that 62% of voters who watched the debate said Clinton won the discussion, compared with 27% for Trump.
  • The S&P 500 Index added 0.6% to bring its quarterly advance to 2.9%. A positive 3 month performance in the benchmark gauge prior to each presidential election led to the incumbent party winning, 19 out of 22 times since 1928.
  • The dollar stabilized earlier today, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rebounding 0.1% following yesterday’s 0.3% decline.
  • US 10yr Treasuries advanced for a second day, with yields falling 3bps to 1.56%.


  • Bank of Canada Governor Poloz hinted at a change in the central bank’s stance yesterday, nothing “it will take three to five years for the economy to restructure itself” from slumping commodity prices.
  • Recent disappointing data – falling core inflation and worse-than-expected retail sales, support a bias towards easing in October. A downside miss in this Friday’s GDP report will likely increase odds of a rate-cut next month.


  • According to the China Beige book, the country’s economic rebalancing to consumer-led growth is reversing and third quarter growth this year has been driven by strong performances in manufacturing, property and commodities while services-led sectors like retail, services and transportation all saw weaker results.

Precious Metals:

  • Spot gold fell 0.9% to $1,324.68/Oz, as a surge in US consumer confidence dampened demand for the metal. China’s gold imports from Hong Kong slid to a seven-month low. The key support level remains at the $1,300/Oz level.
  • Silver is poised to fall for the fourth straight day, after sliding 2.2% to below the $19/Oz handle.


  • Crude oil for November delivery slid 2.7% to $44.67/bbl ahead of OPEC’s meeting in Algiers after Iran said it won’t freeze output at current levels; Iran Oil Minister Zanganeh claimed it isn’t on their agenda to reach an agreement at OPEC talks.
  • The head of IEA said supply and demand won’t be in balance until late 2017 while Goldman Sachs cut its fourth quarter price forecast to $43/bbl.



  • Spot 1.3610
  • USDSGD maintained near the 1.3600 handle, paring yesterday’s losses to trade 0.3% higher earlier today.
  • ABN Amro forecasts MAS to ease in October by shifting its policy bond lower by 0.5%-1% and projects USDSGD to reach 1.4000 by the end of the year.



  • Spot 0.7672
  • AUDUSD was largely unchanged, with the currency pair fluctuating around its prior close.
  • The long-term downward trend since 2014 is in danger of being broken and a strong move up beyond 0.7750 should confirm the break-out.



  • Spot 1.3228
  • For the second day running, USDCAD made a higher high, only to retrace back to 1.3200 handle.
  • A strong close above the 200-day moving average of 1.3242 should confirm the break-out. The next resistance comes in around 1.3500.



  • Spot 6.6801
  • Onshore and offshore yuan was steady as a week-long national holiday approaches; onshore yuan was barely changed all week.
  • The PBOC weakened its reference rate by 0.05% to 6.6681 against the dollar.
  • USDCNH remained largely unchanged around the 6.6800 handle.



  • Spot 100.58
  • USDJPY continues to hover above the key support level of 100, with the currency pair 0.3% higher earlier today at 100.66.
  • An economic adviser to Prime Minister Abe warned that further gains in the yen would undermine any additional monetary easing by the BOJ.
  • A break below the all-important 100.00 level would confirm further downward momentum for the currency pair, with 95.00 a realistically possible target.



  • Spot 1.3007
  • GBPUSD gained 0.5% to recover back above the 1.3000 level.
  • Immediate-term resistance should come in around the one-week high of 1.3121.


© Jachin Capital Pte Ltd

UEN: 201419754M

The contents of this document are for information only and is taken or compiled from sources that we, Jachin Capital Pte Ltd, believe to be reliable. To the maximum extent permitted by law, we do not make any representation or warranty (express or implied) that this information is accurate, timely or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as at the date of this document only and are subject to change without notice. We endeavour to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed but regulatory, compliance or other reasons may prevent us from doing so. The publication and distribution of this document is not and does not imply any form of endorsement of any person, entity, service or product described or appearing here. This is not and does not constitute or form an offer to buy or sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or financial instrument nor to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy. We are not soliciting any action based on this document. The information, services and products described or appearing here are intended only for Accredited Investors (as currently defined in the Securities and Futures Act) and are not intended for nor targeted at the public in any specific jurisdiction. This information does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs of individual investors. Investors should seek independent financial, tax or legal advice or make independent investigations as considered necessary or appropriate before making an investment decision. Investments involve risk. Any past performance, projection, forecast or simulation of results is not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of any investment instrument.

Essential SSL