May 5, 2016

Key overnight events:

  • ADP private payrolls rose 156,000 in April, versus an estimated rise of 195,000, the smallest gain in 3 years and underscoring US economic headwinds.
  • Factory orders in March increased 1.1%, improving from the prior month’s decline of 1.9% and beating estimates of 0.6%.
  • The S&P 500 Index declined 0.6%; banks fell for the second day while energy and raw-material producers lagged for a third session. The US dollar strengthened for the second day, as the Bloomberg Spot Dollar Index added 0.5%.
  • Front-month WTI futures rebounded 0.3% to settle at $43.78/bbl and extended gains further this morning by another 2.0% to $44.68/bbl, as fears increased that Canadian wildfires in Alberta may crimp output. A US government report showed crude inventories rose by 2.78 million barrels last week, much more than the 556,000 expected.
  • Japan’s Abe has called for more expansive worldwide monetary policy in order to spur growth, while acknowledging the same is needed on the fiscal side.
  • Bond-fund manager Bill Gross said that the US may see QE4 in “a year or so”. Jeff Gundlach warned investors to prepare for a debt-fuelled Donald Trump presidency. Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller said stocks look “exhausted”, and confessed that he has loaded up on gold.
  • Turkish assets have slumped on mounting signs of renewed political risk as President Erdogan transforms the typically ceremonial role of president to the country’s power centre. USDTRY has soared more than 5% higher in the past 2 days, amid the country’s ongoing power struggle.

 

USDSGD:

  • Spot 1.3556
  • USDSGD reached its highest since 18th Apr, climbing to a high of 1.3595 this morning.
  • The currency pair has risen more than 1% in a space of two days. It still remains in a downtrend since mid-January, and the next key resistance lies above at 1.3737.

 

AUDUSD:

  • Spot 0.7493
  • After two days of declines, AUDUSD seems to have paused for a breather, finding some support at 0.7450.
  • Retail sales rose 0.4% month-on-month in March, improving from +0.1% the prior month, and better than the 0.3%-increase predicted.

 

USDCAD:

  • Spot 1.2841
  • The downtrend since mid-January for USDCAD is in danger of being broken, as the currency pair rallied for the third straight day, reaching a high of 1.2885 last night. USDCAD has climbed almost 3% since rebounding off the 1.2500 level on 3rd May.
  • Canada’s trade deficit in March unexpectedly widened to a record C$3.41 billion; analysts were predicting a C$1.4 billion gap. Exports dropped to the lowest level in 2 years, while Canada’s trade surplus with the US shrank to its narrowest in 12 years.

 

USDCNH:

  • Spot 6.5139
  • The PBOC lowered its reference rate for the second day, as onshore yuan fell for a third day against the dollar on signs the authorities prefer a weaker currency to stability against the greenback.
  • USDCNH reached a high of 6.5212 earlier today, the highest in more than a month.
  • Caixin services PMI for April came in at 51.8, down from the prior reading of 52.2. Composite PMI stood at 50.8, lower than the prior reading of 51.3.

 

USDNOK:

  • Spot 8.1361
  • Following the previous day’s 1.5% climb, USDNOK’s moves have been limited so far as it consolidates around previous session’s highs. The currency pair remains in a downward trend started since mid-January.

 

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