May 16, 2016

Key overnight events:

  • US April retail sales rose 1.3% month-on-month, better than the consensus estimate of 0.8% month-on-month and the prior month fall of 0.3%. PPI over the same the period came in at 0.2%, improving from a drop in previous month of 0.1%; a 0.3% increase was expected.
  • The S&P 500 Index fell 0.9% on Friday, closing below its 50-day moving average for the first time since 29th Feb, and capping a week’s decline of 0.5%. The US dollar continued strengthening as the Bloomberg Spot Dollar Index rose 0.5%, closing above its 50-day moving average for the first time in over 3 months.
  • Crude oil futures expiring in June ended 3.5% higher for the week, despite declining 1.1% on Friday as the return of output from Canadian oil producers negated losses in Nigeria where militant attacks have cut output by as much as 600,000 bpd.
  • San Francisco Fed President John Williams said 2-3 hikes might still make sense this year based on data; he added that the Fed “definitely” does not need markets to be convinced that rates will be raised in order for it to act. Markets indeed seemed unconvinced as the fed funds futures were unmoved and pricing for a June hike remains at 4%, Bloomberg showed.
  • New York and Atlanta Feds both raised 2Q GDP estimates, while Wall Street analysts say strong retail sales data on Friday put FOMC back on track for a June hike, Bloomberg reported.
  • Japan’s Abe will delay a planned sales-tax increase and will likely announce it after this month’s G-7 summit, Nikkei reported.

 

USDSGD:

  • Spot 1.3717
  • Retail sales for March rose 5.1% month-on-month, higher than the expected 3.6% and improving from a drop in the prior month of 3.1%.
  • USDSGD capped off a strong week, climbing 0.8% for the period to close at its highest level since 16th Mar.

 

AUDUSD:

  • Spot 0.7287
  • After registering a 1.3% decline for the week on Friday, AUDUSD extended losses earlier today down to 0.7237, the lowest in ten weeks, although the currency pair has since pared back some of its declines.
  • The 200-day moving average is currently providing support at 0.7258.

 

USDCAD:

  • Spot 1.2932
  • USDCAD eked out a 0.2% gain for the week after posting a 0.7% gain on Friday. The resistance at the 50-day moving average of 1.2959 seems to be holding for now but once breached, the currency pair could enjoy a run up to the 1.3400 handle.

 

USDCNH:

  • Spot 6.5505
  • Industrial production in April rose 6.0% year-on-year, worse than the 6.5%-rise that was expected, and slowing from an increase of 6.8% the prior month. Retail sales over the same period slipped as well, coming in at 10.1% as compared to the 10.6% predicted. Fixed assets investment in urban areas grew 10.5%, slowing from the 10.7% previously and worse than the 11.0% expected.
  • After gaining 0.6% for the week last Friday, USDCNH pared gains earlier today despite briefly trading at its highest in three months, declining back to the 6.5500 handle.
  • The PBOC was quick to reassure that monetary policy would continue to support the economy, following dismal data over the weekend.

 

USDNOK:

  • Spot 8.1945
  • USDNOK remained almost unchanged for the week, after Friday’s 1.0%-gain erased most of Thursday’s losses. The currency pair has been struggling to break above the 8.2500 handle for the past month.

 

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