Key overnight events:
- US equities fluctuated Monday, as the S&P 500 Index ended 0.1% higher, led by drug-makers and retailers, while energy and raw-material producers slid. The US dollar strengthened broadly for the fifth consecutive day, with the Bloomberg Spot Dollar Index rising 2.3% the past five days and erasing all of April’s losses in the process. The recent resurgence in US dollar has weakened most commodities and commodity currencies.
- Front-month WTI futures fell 2.7% to $43.44/bbl, as shifting winds moved fires away from the oil-sands facilities in Alberta; once fires are under control, the majority of oil sands mining projects can be back to normal levels in about a week, Morgan Stanley said.
- Chicago Fed President Evans said that the Fed is “just being careful” by pausing in its campaign to raise rates, and the interest rates should increase later in the year if economic fundamentals remains sound.
- Borrowing costs for investment-grade issuers have fallen to about 1%, the lowest level in the year, based on Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data, as the ECB prepares to start purchasing corporate debt next month under its expanded bond-buying program.
- China’s People’s Daily newspaper cites warning on debt binge from an unnamed official, who stated that the country can’t borrow its way to long-term economic health; the message contrasts with what investors have been presented in recent months: a record jump in credit that has helped stabilize the economy.
- Spot 1.3705
- After closing above its 50-day moving average yesterday for the first time in three months, USDSGD extended gains this morning by as much as 0.6% to 1.3730, which is just below the next resistance level of 1.3738.
- The next resistance beyond lies at 1.3884.
- Spot 0.7333
- AUDUSD fell 0.7% to a session low of 0.7300 this morning before paring back some of its declines. The 200-day moving average of 0.7259 looks to be the next bastion of support.
- The low today of 0.7300 was AUDUSD’s lowest in two months. Recent weakness in the Aussie dollar coincides with the plunge in commodities on Monday and a report over the weekend which showed imports declined for an 18th month in China, Australia’s biggest trading partner.
- Spot 1.2960
- USDCAD briefly edged above the 1.3000 handle last night for the first time in a month, extending gains by as much as 0.7% to 1.3015. The currency pair has advanced more than 3% in the space of a week.
- According to the IMF, the Bank of Canada should consider unconventional stimulus if its economy, already weakened by low crude-oil prices, gets hit by another significant shock.
- Spot 6.5390
- USDCNH looks poised to advance for the sixth consecutive day, climbing by as much as 0.3% to 6.5448, the highest in more than two months.
- Data today showed April CPI was steady at +2.3% year-on-year, matching expectations; PPI fell 3.4% year-on-year, less than the expected 3.7%-fall.
- The next resistance level above lies at 6.5600.
- Spot 8.2172
- USDNOK rose 0.7% to a session high of 8.2321. The 50-day moving average of 8.3236 would be the next resistance to be tested.
- Norway’s biggest bank, DNB ASA, sees the slump in offshore energy industry to last until 2020 as collapse in crude prices drag down drillers and supply ship operators.
- Inflation data for April will be reported later today and CPI is expected to increase by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year.