Key Updates

Key overnight events:

  • A largely uneventful night as US markets were closed for Martin Luther King Day. In Europe, most markets gave up early session gains to close in the red. Crude oil futures continued to trade near its lows around the $29/bbl handle.
  • Early trading in Asia was lacklustre, with most market participants preferring to stay on the side lines prior to the release of a slew of economic data in China.
  • China’s GDP rose 6.8% in the 3 months through December from a year earlier, below the median estimate of 6.9% in a Bloomberg survey. It is worth noting that the latest China GDP figure is the first missed forecast since 1Q 2013.
  • Industrial production and retail sales figures for the same period both came in a touch weaker than expected as well. Industrial production rose 5.9% in December from a year earlier, compared with 6% growth forecasted, while retail sales increased 11.1% year-on-year, weaker than the 11.3% rise expected by economists.

 

USDSGD:

  • Spot 1.4389
  • USDSGD continues to consolidate in a tight range near its highs. A move either way is possible once a breakout above 1.4450 or below 1.4300 materialises.
  • However, the longer term uptrend for USDSGD still remains in play, and signals further weakening of the Singapore dollar against the greenback.
  • In response the yesterday’s weaker-than-expected export numbers, DBS warned that 4Q GDP figures could be revised downwards and that MAS’ exchange rate policy is still on an easing bias.

 

AUDUSD:

  • Spot 0.6850
  • Made a new intraday low of 0.6839 following China’s weaker-than-expected economic data, and looks set to retest last Friday’s low of 0.6827.
  • Multi-year downtrend still intact and a continuation of the trend could result in AUDUSD reaching the 0.6500 level in due time.

 

USDCAD:

  • Spot 1.4528
  • USDCAD continues to be well-supported at the 1.4500 level.
  • With the Bank of Canada’s rate decision due tomorrow night, any major moves for the loonie prior to its release is unlikely.
  • The implied probability of a 25bp rate cut, as reported by Bloomberg, currently lies at 60%.

 

USDCNH:

  • Spot 6.5969
  • USDCNH rebounded of intraday lows of around 6.5800 following the release of China’s missed economic figures. 6.6200 remains the near-term region of resistance, while 6.5800 continues to provide ample support.

 

USDNOK:

  • Spot 8.9058
  • USDNOK hit an intraday high of 8.9207 last night, rising to as high as 1.87% from its low on Friday.
  • In a report released by OECD yesterday, the organisation stated that Norway should reduce taxes, deregulate private enterprises and speed up public sector reforms to boost competitiveness as concerns over oil prices persist.
© Jachin Capital Pte Ltd

UEN: 201419754M

The contents of this document are for information only and is taken or compiled from sources that we, Jachin Capital Pte Ltd, believe to be reliable. To the maximum extent permitted by law, we do not make any representation or warranty (express or implied) that this information is accurate, timely or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as at the date of this document only and are subject to change without notice. We endeavour to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed but regulatory, compliance or other reasons may prevent us from doing so. The publication and distribution of this document is not and does not imply any form of endorsement of any person, entity, service or product described or appearing here. This is not and does not constitute or form an offer to buy or sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or financial instrument nor to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy. We are not soliciting any action based on this document. The information, services and products described or appearing here are intended only for Accredited Investors (as currently defined in the Securities and Futures Act) and are not intended for nor targeted at the public in any specific jurisdiction. This information does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs of individual investors. Investors should seek independent financial, tax or legal advice or make independent investigations as considered necessary or appropriate before making an investment decision. Investments involve risk. Any past performance, projection, forecast or simulation of results is not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of any investment instrument.

Essential SSL