Key overnight events:

  • US equities were largely unchanged last night as many European markets remained closed on Easter Monday and volumes were thin. The S&P 500 Index added 0.05% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.11%, on lowest trading volumes this year.
  • The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the core PCE, in February slowed to 0.1% month-on-month from 0.3% in January; the expected figure was 0.2%.
  • US personal income for February rose 0.2%, down from the previous figure of 0.5% but better than the expected 0.1%. Personal spending for the same period came in as expected at 0.1%, however the prior month’s figure was revised down to 0.1% from 0.5%. The downward revision prompted most economists to scale back expectations of an April Fed hike, Bloomberg reported.
  • Atlanta Fed researchers slashed Q1 GDP estimates to 0.6% from 1.4%, further lowering expectations of an April hike.
  • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index snapped a 6-day rally, falling 0.4% as broad dollar weakness ensued. Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen is due to make a speech tonight and investors will be interested to hear what she has to say regarding the Fed’s projected interest rate path.
  • Crude oil futures expiring in May fell 0.2% to settle below $40/bbl for the third day, amid speculation that a meeting of oil producers next month won’t ease a global supply glut. Rigs targeting oil in the US fell by 15 to 372 last week, according to Baker Hughes Inc.



  • Spot 1.3688
  • At least 5 banks expect the MAS to maintain its policy stance at its next meeting in April after the government unveiled an expansionary budget for the new fiscal year; Goldman Sachs, ANZ, Credit Suisse, Maybank and Nomura all predict an unchanged policy stance by MAS next month.
  • USDSGD has begun to pare its week-long climb, falling back below 1.3700 to a low this morning of 1.3673.



  • Spot 0.7560
  • Overnight USD weakness has resulted in AUDUSD rebounding from the 0.7500 handle, as the currency pair rose as much as 0.5% today to 0.7566.
  • The 8-month high of 0.7680 remains the next resistance level.



  • Spot 1.3195
  • Despite continued weakness in crude oil prices, USDCAD extended declines, falling by as much as 0.6% to 1.3168.



  • Spot 6.5153
  • The PBOC boosted its fixing for the first time in 4 days, as USDCNH dropped to a low of 6.5087 earlier today.
  • The 6.5300 handle is proving to be a hard resistance to break, with the currency pair only managing a high of 6.5297 last Friday. The 100-day moving average of 6.5323 provides added resistance at said handle.



  • Spot 8.4361
  • USDNOK broke back below its 200-day moving average of 8.4490, falling as much as 0.6% to 8.4142.
  • A break below 8.3000 would provide confirmation of a reversal in USDNOK’s uptrend which has been in play since Sep 2014.


© Jachin Capital Pte Ltd

UEN: 201419754M

The contents of this document are for information only and is taken or compiled from sources that we, Jachin Capital Pte Ltd, believe to be reliable. To the maximum extent permitted by law, we do not make any representation or warranty (express or implied) that this information is accurate, timely or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as at the date of this document only and are subject to change without notice. We endeavour to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed but regulatory, compliance or other reasons may prevent us from doing so. The publication and distribution of this document is not and does not imply any form of endorsement of any person, entity, service or product described or appearing here. This is not and does not constitute or form an offer to buy or sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or financial instrument nor to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy. We are not soliciting any action based on this document. The information, services and products described or appearing here are intended only for Accredited Investors (as currently defined in the Securities and Futures Act) and are not intended for nor targeted at the public in any specific jurisdiction. This information does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs of individual investors. Investors should seek independent financial, tax or legal advice or make independent investigations as considered necessary or appropriate before making an investment decision. Investments involve risk. Any past performance, projection, forecast or simulation of results is not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of any investment instrument.

Essential SSL