Key overnight events:
- US markets ended Friday broadly flat as the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.1% and the S&P 500 ended its session unchanged.
- Crude oil futures expiring in March fell for the first time in 3 days, reaching a low of $29.05/bbl on Friday night. Futures rose as much as 1% this morning as Russia said talks on an output freeze will be done by 1st March while Nigeria said some countries should have production capped at higher levels.
- US CPI climbed 1.4% year-on-year, higher than the estimated 1.3% and the prior figure of 0.7%, and recorded its biggest gain in over 4 years. Core CPI year-on-year came in at 2.2%, better than the 2.1% forecasted and higher than last month’s reading of 2.1%.
- Fed’s Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester stated that she sees no signs that market volatility and oil’s sharp price declines have spilled over to the broader US economy, and added that she still supports a gradual rate path. Mester on votes on policy this year.
- London mayor Boris Johnson said he will campaign for UK to leave the EU, undercutting a weekend deal in Brussels aimed at uniting the bloc. The sterling pound fell as much as 1.2% against the US dollar in early trading today.
- Spot 1.4031
- USDSGD maintains its consolidation over the past 3 days, in the range of 1.4000 – 1.4100.
- CPI due for release tomorrow is expected to come in at a year-on-year figure of -0.5%, while core CPI is projected to rise by 0.5% from a year ago.
- Spot 0.7165
- AUDUSD pared losses from last Friday’s low of 0.7069, recovering back towards its 2-week high of 0.7187, as it continues to fluctuate around the 100-day moving average of 0.7154.
- The 200-day moving average of 0.7277 looms above, and has not been crossed since the breakout to the downside back in Sep 2014.
- Spot 1.3754
- Retail sales for last December reported last Friday came in worse than expected. Retail sales fell by 2.2% from the previous month, worse than the 0.9% decline expected. CPI came in at 2.0% year-on-year, higher than the 1.8% rise estimated.
- USDCAD rose to a high of 1.3847 on Friday, on the back of the data release.
- Finance Minister Bill Morneau is scheduled to unveil new budget-related information tonight.
- Spot 6.5229
- The PBOC said on Friday that the reserve ratio of some banks will be raised, in a bid to contain credit growth after advances by smaller lenders jumped in January. Adjustments to banks’ reserve ratios will be made from 25th Feb.
- USDCNH continues its recent sideways consolidation, and is currently trading not far off from Friday’s close of 6.5241.
- Spot 8.5658
- USDNOK continues to fluctuate around its 100-day moving average of 8.6090.
- According to a Bloomberg survey last week, the Norwegian economy will expand 1.3% in 2016, lower than the prior forecast of 1.4%.