June 8, 2016

Key overnight events:

  • The S&P 500 Index rose 0.1% to a ten month-high, less than 1% away from its all-time high set in May last year. Energy shares led gainers as crude topped $50/bbl, while biotechnology shares paced declines.
  • WTI futures expiring in July settled above $50/bbl for the first time since November last year, capping a 55%-rise from its January low this year. US government data due for release tonight is expected to show crude stockpiles fell for a third week, while Royal Dutch Shell Plc said it won’t repair a key Nigerian pipeline for now after militants attacked it a second time last week.
  • The US dollar weakened broadly overnight as traders took Yellen’s latest words to mean US policy makers aren’t in a hurry to raise rates; the Bloomberg Spot Dollar Index declined 0.4% to its weakest in almost a month.
  • Goldman Sachs says there’s a 40% chance the Fed will raise rates in July, almost double what the bond market projects. In a note to clients, Chief Economist Jan Hatzius cited Yellen’s upbeat view of the economy in her speech on Monday, even after weaker-than-expected US jobs data last Friday.
  • Japan’s 1Q GDP expanded by an annualized 1.9% quarter-on-quarter, matching estimates and more than a preliminary reading of 1.7%, dampening some speculation for further monetary stimulus by the BOJ. The yen strengthened 1.0% following the release of the data.

 

USDSGD:

  • Spot 1.3528
  • USDSGD remains depressed, closing below its 50-day moving average for three consecutive days. Following its previous day’s 0.6% decline, the currency pair pared some losses but still remain below the 1.3600 handle.

 

AUDUSD:

  • Spot 0.7442
  • AUDUSD traded at one month-highs following RBA’s decision to leave rates unchanged yesterday. The currency pair traded to a high of 0.7464 last night before retreating back to session lows of 0.7431 this morning.
  • The next resistance lies at the 50-day moving average of 0.7471.

 

USDCAD:

  • Spot 1.2741
  • Driven by crude’s rally above $50/bbl, the Canadian dollar strengthened as much as 0.4% against the US dollar. USDCAD fell to a one month-low of 1.2734.
  • 1.2500 is the next likely support level to be tested.

 

USDCNH:

  • Spot 6.5732
  • Trade data due today is expected to show a 4.0% decline for exports and a 6.8% decrease in imports, from a year earlier, in USD terms.
  • The PBOC adjusted its yuan fixing by the least in a week as USDCNH remained largely unchanged before the release of key trade data later in the day.

 

USDNOK:

  • Spot 8.1079
  • Industrial production in April rose 0.8% month-on-month, improving from a 1.2% decline previously. Manufacturing production fell 0.7% over the same period, worse than the 0.5%-fall expected.
  • USDNOK maintained near three-week lows, just above the 8.1000 handle, as oil prices rallied overnight.
  • SEB Norway’s chief fixed income strategist Erica Blomgren said Norway’s central bank’s regional network report “should rule out any rate cut on Norges Bank’s June 23 meeting”.

 

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