Key overnight events:
- The S&P 500 Index retreated 0.3% to bring its weekly decline to 1.2%; the gauge has dropped in 5 of its past 6 sessions. Energy shares led gainers, while health-care and technology stocks paced decliners.
- The first Brexit poll since Jo Cox’s killing showed the Remain camp has jumped ahead of Leave by 3 points. The pound jumped as much as 1.8% to 1.4614 earlier today, after ending Friday 1.6% higher, its strongest gain against the US dollar since 17th March.
- The US dollar fell overnight, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slipping 0.4% on Friday and a further 0.4% in Asian morning trade. The yen has halted a week of gains as the latest Brexit poll spurred risk appetite; the yen gained 0.7% earlier today.
- WTI futures expiring in July rallied 3.8% on Friday, cutting its decline for the week to 2.2%. Futures extended gains into Asia’s morning sessions, further climbing as much as 1.2% to $48.57/bbl.
- EU officials are said to be planning meetings to calm markets if the Leave camp wins, the Wall Street Journal reported. Elsewhere, the BOJ is ready to hold an unscheduled meeting to approve an emergency use of coordinated swap lines with major central banks to inject dollars into financial markets post-Brexit, Sankei newspaper reported.
- St Louis Fed President Bullard, who votes in the committee this year, said the US economy might only need one interest one rate hike through 2018. Bullard also called for the Fed to do away with its practice of forecasting long-run values for economic growth and target policy rate.
- RBI Governor Rajan said he will depart in September, ending months of speculation and setting up a fall for the rupee, say analysts.
- Spot 1.3454
- USDSGD ended the week 0.8% lower, and fell a further 0.4% this morning to 1.3441, the lowest since 3rd May.
- Strong support is expected to come in around the 1.3400 handle.
- Spot 0.7441
- AUDUSD ended last Friday up 0.2% higher for the week. The currency pair extended gains this morning, climbing 0.8% to 0.7445.
- The key resistance lies at 0.7505. A break above that level and the currency pair could decisively move higher towards the 0.7800 handle.
- Spot 1.2838
- USDCAD slipped 0.8% on Friday, trimming its advance for the week to 0.9%.
- The currency pair fell a further 0.5% this morning to 1.2836, breaking back below the 50-day moving average of 1.2860.
- Loonie strength has been attributed to oil’s surge overnight and US dollar weakness.
- Spot 6.5865
- USDCNH fell 0.1% for the week, and a further 0.2% this morning, as the yuan rallied on a softer US dollar after Brexit’s latest polls spurred risk-on sentiment.
- China home prices rose in fewer cities in May compared to April, resulting in the average new home price growth to slow for the first time since October.
- Spot 8.2782
- Despite gaining 1.1% for the week, a strong downward reversal after reaching its 200-day moving average at 8.4706 has resumed today. USDNOK fell a further 1.2% to 8.2654 following a resurgent oil and a weaker US dollar.
- Norway’s oil production is set to fall “drastically” in June due to heavy summer maintenance, with at least seven fields totalling 230,000 bpd going offline, Energy Aspects said in an emailed note dated 17th June.