Market Views – Aussie & Kiwi

AUD/USD:

Despite AUD’s recent rise against the USD since 19 Mar (+19% since), the major trend for AUD/USD is still to the downside as shown above. The recent pullback is approaching a key resistance level at $0.6670. The next resistance level above would be $0.7000, though it is unlikely to be reached. AUD/USD seems to be struggling to stay above the $0.6500 handle, and there seems to be a possible double-top forming over the past couple weeks, indicating a potential thinning out of Aussie bulls.

On the macro front, AUD has come under pressure recently following growing tensions between Australia and China, as the latter recently suspended imports of meat from Australia, allegedly in retaliation after Australia called for an independent probe into the origins of the coronavirus.

We would expect AUD/USD to trade sideways over the near term, with a range of 0.62-0.66. Over a longer horizon, the downward trend should continue, and revisit of 0.60 is likely while a retest of the 0.55 March low is possible as well.

Supports: 0.6200, 0.5500
Resistances: 0.6670, 0.6000, 0.5500

 

NZD/USD:

We see a similar looking chart for NZD/USD, with pair the rebounding about 12% since Mar 19. Like the AUD, the longer term trend for NZD is lower. Near-term upside for NZD/USD is likely to be capped at the 0.62 resistance level – a strong one as it previously acted as a support before breaking in early March.

The RBNZ this week expanded its QE program and said negative policy rates may be on the horizon. NZD/USD sliding back down to 0.55 is a likely scenario. The pair could even test 0.50 by year-end, a level last traded at more than 10 years ago during the GFC.

Supports: 0.5900, 0.5500
Resistances: 0.6200, 0.6500

 

AUD/NZD:

AUD/NZD has largely been in a sideways range over the past 4+ years, bouncing between 1.13 and 1.02 throughout except during the last 2 weeks of March this year. Given RBNZ’s more dovish take earlier today, AUD/NZD is likely to test the support of 1.0850 soon.

Supports: 1.0600, 1.0250
Resistances: 1.0850, 1.100

 

Sources: All images from Bloomberg
© Jachin Capital Pte Ltd

UEN: 201419754M

The contents of this document are for information only and is taken or compiled from sources that we, Jachin Capital Pte Ltd, believe to be reliable. To the maximum extent permitted by law, we do not make any representation or warranty (express or implied) that this information is accurate, timely or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as at the date of this document only and are subject to change without notice. We endeavour to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed but regulatory, compliance or other reasons may prevent us from doing so. The publication and distribution of this document is not and does not imply any form of endorsement of any person, entity, service or product described or appearing here. This is not and does not constitute or form an offer to buy or sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or financial instrument nor to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy. We are not soliciting any action based on this document. The information, services and products described or appearing here are intended only for Accredited Investors (as currently defined in the Securities and Futures Act) and are not intended for nor targeted at the public in any specific jurisdiction. This information does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs of individual investors. Investors should seek independent financial, tax or legal advice or make independent investigations as considered necessary or appropriate before making an investment decision. Investments involve risk. Any past performance, projection, forecast or simulation of results is not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of any investment instrument.

Essential SSL

DISCLAIMER

DISCLAIMER

Accredited Investors

By using this web-site you represent and warrant that you are an Accredited Investor based on the definition provided in Section 4A(1a) of the Securities and Futures Act:

“Accredited investor” means:

  1. An individual –
  2. whose net personal assets exceed in value SGD2 million (or such other amount as the MAS may prescribe); or
  3. whose income in the preceding 12 months is not less than SGD300,000 (or such other amount as the MAS may prescribe)
  4. a corporation with net assets exceeding SGD10 million in value (or such other amount as MAS may prescribe).”

 

Users represent that they are Accredited Investors who are using this web-site for information purposes only.
The materials provided on this web-site are strictly for information only and is not an offer or a solicitation to deal in any of the financial instruments referred to herein or to enter into any legal relations, nor an advice or recommendation with respect to such financial instruments. Users should independently evaluate each financial instrument and consider the suitability of such financial instrument, taking into account their specific investment objectives, risk profile, financial situation or particular needs and consult independent advisers as necessary, before dealing in any financial instruments mentioned on this web-site. While reasonable efforts have been made to ensure that the contents have been obtained or derived from sources believed by Jachin Capital to be reliable, Jachin Capital does not make any express or implied representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information, data or prevailing state of affairs that are mentioned herein and do not accept any liability for any loss or damage whatsoever, direct or indirect, arising from or in connection with the use of or reliance on the contents of this web-site. Jachin Capital reserves the right to act upon or use the contents herein at any time, including before its publication on this web-site.

Past performance is not always indicative of likely or future performance. All investments involve an element of risk, including capital loss. Persons who are interested to invest in such financial instruments should read the risk disclosures and governing terms and conditions that are set out in the relevant offering documents.

We observe and obey the laws and regulations of the Personal Data Protection Act (PDPA) – click here to view the full notice.

 

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT AND CONSENT

  • [ ACCEPT ] I acknowledge that I have read and understood the Terms and Conditions and the Data Protection Notice. I consent to the collection, use and disclosure of my personal data by Jachin Capital for the purposes set out in the Notice.

 

  • [ DECLINE ] I do not would like to receive information about the goods and services which may be provided by Jachin Capital Pte Ltd , including (but not limited to) offers, promotions and information about new goods and services.