April 12, 2016

Key overnight events:

  • The S&P 500 Index slipped 0.3% overnight, after falling 1.2% last week in the steepest slide since February. Earnings season began post-market with Alcoa, who reported below-estimate revenue while profit exceeded analysts’ forecasts; Alcoa shares slide 2.9% lower on lower outlook for aluminium demand.
  • Crude oil futures expiring in May rose 1.6% ahead of the Doha talks on output freeze this weekend, settling above $40/bbl for the first time since 22nd Mar.
  • US dollar weakness continued from last Friday, as the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.4% to close at the lowest since June 2015.
  • US consumers’ inflation expectations fell again in March, a New York Fed survey showed, and are back near January’s record low.
  • Ex-Fed chief Ben Bernanke wrote in a blog post, commenting that under “extreme circumstances” helicopter money may be the “best available alternative”, although probability of it happening “seems extremely low”.

 

USDSGD:

  • Spot 1.3449
  • After falling 0.3% yesterday, Singapore dollar strength against the US dollar  continued again today as the currency pair declined further to low of 1.3422 this morning.
  • Should the 2016 low of 1.3415 be breached, the next support below lies at 1.3286 which was the low in June last year.
  • Investors await MAS’s monetary policy decision, scheduled for release later this Thursday.

 

AUDUSD:

  • Spot 0.7618
  • AUDUSD rose as much as 0.8% to 0.7630 today on the back of US dollar weakness and improving business confidence.
  • The NAB business confidence index doubled to 6 points last month, while the business conditions gauge climbed to 12 points which is the highest level since before the global financial crisis.
  • The 2016 high of 0.7723 remains the next key resistance to be broken.

 

USDCAD:

  • Spot 1.2910
  • USDCAD fell by as much as 0.7% to 1.2886 today, following oil’s surge back above $40/bbl.
  • The support at 1.2832 remains an important level, which has been significant since January last year.
  • The Bank of Canada’s rate decision is due for release tomorrow night, and is expected to remain unchanged at 0.50%.

 

USDCNH:

  • Spot 6.4753
  • USDCNH dipped to 6.4677, the lowest in a week, before paring back declines this morning.
  • Trade data is due for release tomorrow, with exports in March expected to have risen by 10.0% year-on-year and imports forecasted to have dropped by 10.1% year-on-year, in US dollar terms.

 

USDNOK:

  • Spot 8.2045
  • Norway’s CPI in March rose 0.5% month-on-month, beating the 0.3%-rise expected and matching the previous month’s increase. In year-on-year terms, CPI rose by 3.3%, better than the forecasted 3.2% and previous month’s 3.1% increases.
  • For the third time this month, USDNOK made a new year-to-date low, declining as much as 1.0% to 8.1633 last night. The next support around the 8.0000 psychological level should provide a strong floor for the currency pair.

 

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