April 11, 2016

Key overnight events:

  • US February wholesale inventories fell 0.5% month-on-month, worse than the 0.2%-drop expected. The drop is the biggest since mid-2013.
  • The S&P 50 Index rose 0.3% last Friday, capping a 1.2% drop for the week ahead of what is forecasted to be the worst earnings season since the financial crisis. Analysts are expecting a 9.5%-drop in profits for the first quarter.
  • WTI front-month futures rallied 6.6% to $39.72/bbl, the biggest jump since Feb 12th. Speculation has resurfaced that Russia and OPEC members can reach a deal on freezing oil output when they meet in Doha on April 17th. EIA data showed US crude production slid by 14,000 bbl/day to 9 million bbl/day, while oil rigs count by Bakers Hughes declined by 8 to 354 rigs.
  • The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta cut its US 1Q GDP estimate for the third time in 2 weeks, to 0.1% from 0.4%.
  • The IMF said, in a paper posted on Sunday, it supports the introduction of negative policy rates by some central banks given the significant risks to growth and inflation outlooks.
  • Japan machine orders in February slipped 9.2% month-on-month, dropping for the first time in 3 months. A 12.0%-drop was expected.
  • Japan’s Suga said the G-20 pact on FX devaluation doesn’t bar Japan from responding to one-sided currency moves, Reuters reported.

 

USDSGD:

  • Spot 1.3461
  • 12 out of 18 economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast MAS to maintain its policy stance on Thursday. DBS is among the minority, predicting the central bank to reduce the pace of currency appreciation to zero from the current 0.5% annually.
  • USDSGD fell back below the 1.3500 handle this morning, and looks poised to test the 2016-low of 1.3415 soon.

 

AUDUSD:

  • Spot 0.7564
  • Australian home loans in February rose 1.5% month-on-month, rebounding from a 4.4%-drop the prior month.
  • AUDUSD currently shows some sign of exhaustion, failing to hold above the 0.7600 handle for the most past of last week. MACD momentum indicators remain pointing downwards as well.
  • To the downside, the key support remains at 0.7382.

 

USDCAD:

  • Spot 1.2983
  • Canadian March jobs report released on Friday was positive. Unemployment rate fell to 7.1%, from 7.3% the previous month; the forecasted number was 7.4%. 40,600 jobs were added in March, beating the 10,000 expected and up from a drop of 2,300 the previous month.
  • The Canadian dollar surged the most in 3 weeks against the US dollar, following the strong jobs report as many speculated the BOC will refrain from cutting interest rates further when it meets later this week.
  • USDCAD fell as much as 1.2% to 1.2952 last Friday, closing below the 1.3000 psychological level for only the second time in almost 6 months.

 

USDCNH:

  • Spot 6.4759
  • China’s March CPI remained buoyant, maintaining last month’s pace and rising by 2.3% year-on-year; the forecasted reading was 2.4%. PPI fell 4.3% year-on-year, slowing from a 4.9%-drop in January; a 4.6%-decline was expected.
  • The PBOC strengthened its yuan fixing by the most this month, up 0.13% to 6.4649. USDCNH fell marginally this morning, 0.1% to an intraday low of 6.4738.

 

USDNOK:

  • Spot 8.2247
  • March CPI, due out later today, is expected to have risen by 0.3% month-on-month, slower than the 0.5%-rise the previous month.
  • USDNOK fell by as much as 1.4% on Friday to 8.1987, the lowest since last October.

 

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